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Nežēlīgā statistika

Noteikti ikviens būs pamanījis, ka Latvijā jau kuro gadu laiku pa laikam uzvirmo asas diskusijas par sociālās, izglītības, veselības aprūpes un citu vietējām kopienām svarīgu infrastruktūras objektu optimizāciju, jeb, būsim reālisti – likvidāciju. Tiek optimizētas slimnīcas, poliklīnikas, pasta nodaļas, bibliotēkas, skolas. Cilvēki protestē gan klātienē, gan sociālajos tīklos, bet optimizāciju cunami veļas un veļas pāri Latvijas laukiem un mazpilsētām, kas paliek arvien klusākas un tukšākas pēc katra viļņa.

Protams, vairums no mums uztver šīs norises emocionāli un negatīvi. Vecākās paaudzes ļaudis atceras Latvijas laukus – nu labi, lai ar visām padomju sistēmas negācijām, bet tomēr kā pilnus dzīvības, ar vienmēr pieejamām vakancēm, vietām skolās un bērnudārzos, dienesta dzīvokļiem jaunajiem speciālistiem utt. Toties tagad viss kļūst arvien pamestāks, cilvēki aizplūst kur nu kurais: novadu centri, Rīga, ārzemes. Paliek vien plaši, pesticīdu sterilizēti rapšu un labības lauki ar tukšu viensētu ielāpiņiem. Jau esam pieraduši dzimtsarakstu nodaļu gada atskaitēs redzēt mirušo skaitu, kas teju pat divas reizes pārsniedz jaundzimušo.

Jā… Demogrāfija. Ļausim emociju vietā runāt sausiem skaitļiem.

Ir tāda Statistikas pārvaldes tīmekļa vietne, portāls   stat.gov.lv.www.data.stat.gov.lv

Ikviens, kam nav slinkums, var pārbaudīt šos datus un pārliecināties, ka nekas no tālāk teiktā nav pārspīlēts vai izdomāts.

Sāksim ar iedzīvotāju dabiskā pieauguma rādītājiem. Ja pirmskara Latvijā ik gadu bija stabils pieaugums no 5 līdz 15 tūkstošiem cilvēku, tad pēc 1990.gada situācija ir krasi atšķirīga. Nevienu reizi trīsdesmit divu gadu laikā (dati šobrīd pieejami līdz 2022.gadam) bilance nav bijusi pozitīva. Šajā periodā negatīvās dzimstības dēļ esam zaudējuši vairāk kā 341 000 cilvēku.

Otrs faktors: migrācijas saldo. Arī tas nevienu reizi kopš neatkarības atgūšanas nav bijis ar plusa zīmi. Milzīgs aizbraucēju skaits pirmajos neatkarības gados – par to varētu tikai priecāties, jo projām devās okupācijas armijas pārstāvji ar savām ģimenēm. Tomēr arī pēc tam esam mīnusos. Kārtējais “kritiens” – 2007.-2008.gada krīze un darbaspēka aizplūšana. Kopš tā laika esam zaudējuši aptuveni 200 000 aizbraucēju. Vienīgais gads, kad esam “plusā” – 2022. Diemžēl, lielākā daļa no 20 tūkstošiem iebraucēju ir Ukrainas kara bēgļi. Latviešu  – tikai ap tūkstoti.

Tātad pēdējo 30 gadu laikā valsts zaudējusi pusi miljona cilvēku. Tas ir – vairāk kā ceturto daļu iedzīvotāju. Ja mēs vēl pierēķinātu klāt vairāk kā 400 000 mākslīgo abortu… Protams, šis ir sarežģīts jautājums, bet, kā jau teicu – tāda ir statistika. Prieks, ka abortu skaitam ir tendence arvien samazināties: no gandrīz 40 tūkstošiem 1991.gadā līdz nepilniem trim tūkstošiem 2022.gadā un šī līkne tuvojas nullei. Bet kopējie skaitļi ir vienkārši dramatiski.

Tāpēc pilnīgi likumsakarīgi, ka skolēnu skaits vispārizglītojošās skolās ir samazinājies no 352 tūkstošiem 1991.gadā līdz 217 tūkstošiem 2021.gadā (tātad mīnus 38 procenti), un vispārizglītojošo skolu skaits attiecīgi no 962 uz 643 (par vienu trešdaļu mazāk).

Kopējais secinājums – mēs izmirstam. Strauji. Tas nav nekāds noslēpums. Tā ir kā sniega bumba, kas neapturami veļas lejup no kalna. Jāsaprot elementāra lieta: banāli sakot, tas, kurš nav piedzimis, nevairojas. Tas, kurš pārcēlies uz dzīvi svešās zemēs, nevairojas Latvijai. Tātad, katrs gads ar dzimstības bilances mīnusu mūs ievelk gan dziļāk demogrāfiskajā bedrē šodien, gan atņem nākotnes cerības. Un, protams, finansiāli. Nav noslēpums, ka mūsu valstī pat vispieticīgākie statistikas dati parāda nenormālu ēnu ekonomikas – uzņēmējdarbības, par kuru netiek maksāti nodokļi – īpatsvaru. Gandrīz deviņi miljardi eiro (vairāk nekā ceturtā daļa no valsts Iekšzemes kopprodukta!) tiek, rupji sakot, noblēdīta – kā aplokšņu algas, kā neuzrādīti ieņēmumi. Tad, apvienojot visu iepriekš minēto, – kādus  brīnumus mēs galu galā gribam redzēt? Vai kādu Laimes Lāci, kas atnāks, sāks mūsu vietā dzemdēt bērnus un maksāt nodokļus? Neviens nenāks. Nāksies pašiem sakārtot savu māju, bet, ja ne – agri vai vēlu atnāks citi, kas to izdarīs. Tikai, kad tas notiks, diez vai mēs (tie, kas vēl būs palikuši) būsim par to sajūsmā.

 

Komentāri

  1. Diemžēl,pilnīga taisnība ! Tam jau pat skaitļus nevajag, pamēģiniet atrast labu speciālistu jebkurā jomā, tu,tū naf ! Rīga jau izdzīvos. Taču novadi, tikai ašākie, kuri spēj ieinteresēt iedzīvotājus , rūpēties lai iedzīvotājiem nebūtu nekur jāmūk ,jo tikai atbalstošā vidē var augt bērni.
    Diemžēl pagaidām tas nav Tukuma variants………….

  2. Padomju okupācijas varas gados Latvijā dzima krievi, nevis latvieši. No tā laika depopulācijas ir grūti attiet pat vel tagad. Otrajā pasaules karā Eiropa saņēma Lendlīzi, pēc kara tika realizēts Maršala plāns. Eiropa atkopās. Bet kas notika ar Latviju? Padomju okupācijas vara izlaupīja Latviju un iepludināja simtus tūkstošus civilokupantu. Lūk, kas notika ar Latviju.

  3. Diemžēl viss tiek darīts, lai lauki būtu tukši.Diez kā tas ir darba sludinājumi reģionos ir ar leilām prasībām, bet atalgojums smieklīgs. Tā dubultmorāle, piesakās jau labi ka vispār ir kāds. Un ko var gribēt tad lauku reģionos, kapēc lai jaunie gribētu palikt? Varbūt ir laukos jābūt tādam pašam kā pilsētu centros un tad tie jaunie vēlēsies dzīvot lauku reģionos.

    1. Nodarbojies ar 2. paaudzes biotehnoloģiju un radi pati sev darbu! LU visas vajadzīgās zināšanas var iegūt. Vajadzīgos mikroorganismus no mikroorganismu kultūru kolekcijas var izdiedelēt kursa darba un diplomdarba rezultātā. Kur problēma? Laukos uzņēmīgs cilvēks var dzīvot cepuri kuldams.

    2. Vispirms jau vajag noasfaltēt ceļus līdz laukiem. Kurš jauns cilvēks grib braukt kā pa miltu maisu? Tā te valdības mainās, sasola labumus, bet beigās nav nekā. Šodien Kandavā uz ielas ķersta cilvēkus, lai parakstās par Kandavas novada atpakaļ dabūšanu, atdalīšanu no Tukuma. Nez kurā “lielajā galvā” ienāca tāda doma? Neatceros, ka Kandavas novada laikā būtu kas bijis tik labi, lai gribētu atpakaļ. Tos parakstu vācējus gribas pasūtīt uz vienu vietu… ,patiesībā ne jau parakstu vācējus, bet tos, kas uzdeva parakstus vākt.

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    it’s for fun or to make a profit from betting on the games
    of fortune, you’ll find that there are many soccer analysts
    on the planet, as well as tools in the form of computer programs that
    can help you. in this venture.
    Today I would like to introduce you to our successful analytical approach
    to football predictions: we use a program that gives full information about future matches based on the ELO rating system,
    which also provides information on the performance of the ELO
    rating, and also allows to perform Asian handicap
    tests, as well as computer simulation of the future match
    to see the change in the ability to perform the ELO ratings, as well
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    As you can see, we are talking about professional soccer predictions that take into account various factors that could be predicted
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    make a profit from betting on the games of fortune, you’ll find
    that there are many soccer analysts on the planet,
    as well as tools in the form of computer programs that can help you.
    in this venture.
    Today I would like to introduce you to our successful
    analytical approach to football predictions: we use a program that gives full information about future matches
    based on the ELO rating system, which also provides information on the performance
    of the ELO rating, and also allows to perform Asian handicap tests,
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    to see the change in the ability to perform the ELO ratings, as well as in the ELO ratings themselves and more and
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    as tools in the form of computer programs that can help you.
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    Today I would like to introduce you to our successful analytical approach
    to football predictions: we use a program that gives full information about future matches based on the ELO rating system, which also provides information on the performance of the ELO
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    as in the ELO ratings themselves and more and more valuable indicative of the outcome of the match objective parameters.

    As you can see, we are talking about professional soccer predictions that take
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    For more information and to see evidence of the success of our
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    We claim that our analytical approach is currently leading in the world of football predictions and because it allows to successfully analyze not only football matches, but basketball matches,
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    Bourgas
    Bulgaria

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    Football is perhaps the most interesting sport on our planet,
    and predicting the final outcome of football matches
    is a complex and complex task.
    When you make soccer predictions, whether it’s for fun or
    to make a profit from betting on the games of fortune, you’ll find
    that there are many soccer analysts on the planet, as well as tools in the form of computer programs that can help you.
    in this venture.
    Today I would like to introduce you to our successful analytical
    approach to football predictions: we use a program that gives full information about
    future matches based on the ELO rating system, which also provides information on the
    performance of the ELO rating, and also allows to perform Asian handicap
    tests, as well as computer simulation of the future match to see
    the change in the ability to perform the ELO ratings, as well as in the ELO ratings themselves and
    more and more valuable indicative of the outcome of the match objective parameters.

    As you can see, we are talking about professional soccer predictions that take into account various
    factors that could be predicted in advance.
    We offer you a training course using the above mentioned program, the end result of which
    will be a great development of your analytical abilities regarding football matches.
    For more information and to see evidence of the success of our analytical
    football approach please visit:
    sport.toxylact.com
    We claim that our analytical approach is currently leading in the world of football
    predictions and because it allows to successfully analyze
    not only football matches, but basketball matches, hockey matches and more sports!

    With respect
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    Bourgas
    Bulgaria

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